Race Engineer’s Notebook – Japan – Part 2

In today’s Part 2 (of three), I’ll be jumping straight into FP2 analysis. In order to keep the blog short but as informative as possible, I will skip analysing FP1 because usually that is the session where teams are still gauging the circuit and conditions, and therefore the FP1 times do not reliably tell us anything regarding overall pace.

FP2 Analysis

 Sector 1

In order of final FP2 position, I have created a graph showing each of the top ten drivers’ Sector 1 times.

Before I go on to analyse, I will quickly mention my earlier predictions of what would happen during Sector 1:

•         Red Bulls would be the closest match to the Mercedes’
•          Ferraris to have similar times to the Williams’

Everyone knows the strengths of the Newey designed RB, and that is high speed cornering. I for one thought that the Red Bull cars would be extremely quick through here because the nature of Sector 1 is purely high speed cornering.

In fact the RB’s were the fourth quickest constructor behind Mercedes, Williams, McLaren and Toro Rosso.
The RB’s seem to be struggling through this sector, which could be down to the deteriorating circuit conditions.

The high aero demands of Sector 1 also highlight Ferrari’s poor aerodynamic efficiency compared to their competitors. Ignoring Ricciardo because of him missing the majority of the session, the two Ferraris were the slowest through S1 in the top 10.
This data helps prove how much of an aerodynamic deficit Ferrari has. Ferrari’s main competitor, Williams, were around 3.5 tenths quicker through this sector alone, which simply cannot be put down to Williams having a Mercedes PU.

McLaren have shown good strength in their aerodynamics and their cars’ agility with K-Mag scoring a fantastic 34.800s. Button finished FP2 4^th overall, but if he could match Magnussen’s 2 tenth superiority through S1, Button could well find himself just as quick as the Williams (if not quicker!).

Kvyat ended up 4th quickest through S1 highlighting the potential in himself and the Toro Rosso - A very impressive Sector indeed.

Sector 2 

In FP2 positions 3rd-8th (BOT-MAG), the drivers were separated by just over 0.2 seconds. This goes to show how tight the competition is immediately behind the Mercedes’.

To begin with, we will look at the slowest person through S2. Kvyat, who was one of the quickest in S1, has now lost a significant amount of time compared to the rest of the top 10. The Toro Rosso is likely struggling with maximising its mechanical grip, as the cars go from T8 and T9 down towards the hairpin.
The final challenge of S2 is the Spoon Curve, which the TR should be able to handle comfortably. As proven in S1, the Toro Rosso is more than capable with high speed cornering.

Ferrari are faster than McLaren in general, which is surprising because I’d expected S2 to be more of an ‘PU Sector’. Obviously McLaren’s Mercedes HPP isn’t going above and beyond for sector two, as Ferrari seem to have their Mechanical Grip and power delivery nailed. RAI, VET and BOT post almost identical Sector 2 times. The Ferrari (Raikkonen) is quick.

In opposite fashion to S1, Button is just under a tenth quicker than Magnussen, but overall, Magnussen is still quicker going into S3.

Sector 3

Sector 3 was dominated by Lewis as he well and truly went HAM.
Alonso is ridiculously quick through here, but we all know how good he is through 130R, so the rest of his S3 is a piece of cake.

Hamilton blew Nico away by almost 2.5 tenths in S3. Considering S3 consists only of a chicane and 130R, you must be quite special to put this sort of delta in between you and your team-mate.
Nico was shockingly slow finishing 5^th fastest in this sector, with no offence meant, but even Button’s Mac was quicker. Maybe he is struggling with braking into the chicane, maybe he’s lifting too much through 130R, who knows? I’d expect Mercedes to correct this issue by qualifying; otherwise we could potentially see another coloured car on the front row.

Alonso has always been quick through this Sector, as he secures 2^nd fastest – very impressive considering the recent performances of the Ferrari against the Red Bulls etc.

Bottas shows how good the Williams’ aerodynamics and stability are as he gets 3^rd fastest. He’s a gutsy driver and this sector suits him.

Qualifying

Qualifying in Japan will be an extremely difficult task for every car in the pit lane. Uncertainty with the weather, and intense competition throughout the field could easily cause a two team front row.

Alonso is continually doing things that nobody believes can be done in the F14T, and partnerships like Bottas and Williams prove extremely hungry to fight for a fight between themselves and the Mercedes. It can’t be forgotten that Williams and Ferrari are in a very close battle for 3^rd place in the WCC. So far in Japan, even though Bottas is superior to the two Ferraris, Massa is struggling to break into the top ten, and therefore, the Ferrari’s have more of a chance to score more points.

The field is incredibly tight this weekend in Japan, and the slightest of mistakes could see a Q3 lap go from 2^nd on the grid to 8^th. The stakes are higher than ever, and with a possibility of an early red flag during Sunday’s race, it makes grid position that much more important.